Assessment of Normalized Rainfall Index and Vulnerability of Sugarcane Production to Climate Change in Mumias Zone, Kenya | Chapter 09 | Emerging Challenges in Environment and Earth Science Vol. 2

 In Kenya, sugarcane is a significant economic crop. Over 8 million Kenyans are directly and indirectly supported by the sugar business, which provides income to over 294,000 small-scale growers and 7,500 employees. Rainfed sugarcane agriculture is the norm in Kenya, and climate change is expected to have an impact on productivity. The Normalized Rainfall Index (NRI) and the Vulnerability of Sugarcane Production to Climate Change in Mumias sugar zone were statistically analysed in this study. This was based on rainfall data from 1984 to 2014, which spanned a 30-year period. The coefficients of skewness and kurtosis for the rainfall series during the period were not normally distributed at the 95 percent confidence level, according to the findings of several statistical tests. From 1984 to 2014, the five-year and ten-year running means for annual rainfall series both exhibited periods below and above the long-term mean (2053.3 mm), with consistent increases above the mean from 1984 to 1990 for the five-year running means and from 2004 to 2014 for the ten-year running means. Between 1994 and 2002, sugarcane yields fell dramatically. Furthermore, there was a considerable reduction in sugarcane yield from 2003 to 2014. From 1994 through 2014, the Pearson's Product Moment Correlation coefficient (r) was utilised to determine whether there was a meaningful association between annual rainfall totals and sugarcane yields. The coefficient was positive but not fully correlated (r = 0.097). Sugarcane was shown to be vulnerable to climate change in an assessment of outcome vulnerability using rainfall totals from 1984 to 2014. (drought and flooding). As a result, this study indicates that the relationship between rainfall and cane production in Mumias was favourable but not perfect, and that cane was vulnerable to climate change.

Author(S) Details

G. Omoto
Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, Sugar Research Institute, P.O. Box 44-40100, Kisumu, Kenya.

J. Jamoza
Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, Sugar Research Institute, P.O. Box 44-40100, Kisumu, Kenya.



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