With successive waves of illnesses, the world was badly devastated by the continuous spread of alpha, beta, and delta SARS-CoV-2 VoC. On November 25, 2021, a new SARS-CoV-2 variation of concern (VoC), omicron, was reported, almost 23 months after the first case of COVID-19 was recorded and after an estimated 260 million infections and 5.2 million fatalities globally. India has reported 32 instances of Omicron variant as of December 10, 2021. As a result, in order to manage and control the present pandemic, it is critical to identify and evaluate the risk. The study highlights India's shocking and unparalleled COVID-19 mortality. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the most adaptive epidemiological measure for evaluating illness severity, and it is calculated using the Yoshikura technique. When the estimated CFR of 10 Indian states is compared to the general CFR calculation, Kerala is determined to have the lowest CFR of 0.40 percent, signifying the least severe sickness. In order to obtain the best-fitted model with the data, Weibull, Gamma, and Lognormal probability distributions are used to model mortality in India. The Gamma distribution is the best-fitting probability model, according to the research. The trend and forecasting pattern of mortality are studied using time-series modelling. The ARIMA model predicts an upward trend in death in the following days, and this foresight model aids administrative authorities and medical staff in making health-care service and infrastructure plans. For the foreseeable future, public health initiatives including immunisation as a preventative method will be beneficial.
Author(S) Details
K. K. Jose
Department of Biostatistics, St. Thomas College, Palai, Kerala, India and School of Mathematics & Statistics, M. G. University, Kottayam, India
Liji Anna Varghese
Department of Biostatistics, St. Thomas College, Palai, Kerala, India and Sree Mookambika Institute of Medical Sciences, Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu, India.
Vivek S. Nair
Department of Biostatistics, St. Thomas College, Palai, Kerala, India and Eurofins Advinus, Bangalore, India.
Jilby C. Jose
Department of Biostatistics, St. Thomas College, Palai, Kerala, India and Inductive Quotient Analytics Pvt. Ltd., Hyderabad, India.
View Book:- https://stm.bookpi.org/ETDHR-V3/article/view/5879
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