Statistical Modeling for Indian GDP, Export and Import | Chapter 6 | An Overview on Business, Management and Economics Research Vol. 3

 This branch investigates the relationship betwixt GDP, exports, and imports. The main objective of this phase is to resolve the dynamic links betwixt India's GDP, exports, and imports using dossier collected done yearly between 1950 and 2014. Gross household product (GDP) is a finances measure of the market profit of all the final merchandise and services presented in a specific an age by a country or countries. GDP is usually used apiece government of a distinct country to measure allure economic well-being. Due to its complex and emotional nature, this measure is frequently revised before being deliberate a reliable sign. The Jarque-Bera test (used to check for normality), the Augmented Dickey-Fuller part root test, the Phillips-Perron unit root test, the KPSS test (used to check for stationarity), and the Johansen Co-unification test (used to check for the number of con-integrating friendships among the latent variables) are among the miscellaneous econometrics tools. Vector Error Correction Model (to verify the variables' long-term friendships with one another) Both the Granger origin test and the Wald test have been used to decide the direction of origin. The stationarity test findings presented that the three variables under consideration have part roots at level I(0), but that they enhance stationary at level I(1) later being transformed into the first distinctness. The trace and Max-eigenvalue test statistics of Johansen’s Co-unification test indicated the life of two co-integrating equatings and exhibited a long-run evenness relationship betwixt the study variables. In the Vector Error Correction Model, C(1) is the coefficient of the mistake correction (co-unification) model, which is negative and important, indicating a long-run origin running from import and ship to GDP. The Wald test indicates that skilled are not around for long causalities running from export to GDP and no not around for long causality running from significance to GDP. The Granger Causality test reveals that bidirectional origin exists betwixt export and GDP and unidirectional origin between significance and GDP. The residuals on account of the Vector Error Correction Model are independent (no autocorrelation) and usually distributed. Also, the VECM model is empty Heteroskedasticity.

Author(s) Details:

Rajarathinam A.,
Department of Statistics, Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, Abishekapatti, Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India.

Manikandan B.,
Department of Statistics, Manonmaniam Sundaranar University, Abishekapatti, Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India.

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