This episode introduces a Semi-Markov process for judging sojourn time and change between dispassionate states of HIV patients under ART make inquiries. A Semi-Markov process under HIV disease progress can be delineated based on the distribution of sojourn opportunities. Sojourn time refers in consideration of time a HIV patient spends in each dispassionate state in a single stay before he/she form a transition to another state. HIV ailment progression maybe broken down into any of intermediate states, established CD4 counts. The four states of the Markov process of HIV are commonly outlined as: S1: CD4 count > 500 cells/microlitre of ancestry; S2: 350 < CD4 count ≤ 500 cells/microlitre of ancestry; S3: 200 < CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/microlitre of ancestry; S4: CD4 count ≤ 200 cells/microliter of ancestry. The main objective of this chapter to estimate sojourn and change between dispassionate states of patients under ART in Namibia utilizing homogenous semi-Markov processes, on dossier obtained from Ministry of Health and Social Services (MoHSS), Namibia. It is owned by state that during the effect period, no dying was recorded and this maybe attributed to exhaustive efforts for one government and differing stakeholders. Namibia is the first African country to have attained and exceeded the UNAIDS 2020 aim, to have at least 73% of HIV positive men viral load restrained. In this chapter, a backward-looking study design was used to obtain dossier on 2422 patients the one were observed 11028 opportunities, during 2008 to 2017 make inquiries period. The four produced semi-Markov model was working to estimate sojourn times and change between dispassionate states. By the end of the chapter, the main results of the study are likely; this includes explanatory statistics on socio-mathematical characteristics of the patients, probabilities of transiting from individual state to another and sojourn times each state. Furthermore, a full dispute of the main results is provided. Conclusion is likely to reflect on the evidence and to report any restraint of the study. Specific actions that maybe taken established the results and conclusion are contained.
Author(s) Details:
Simon Pombili Kashihalwa,
Department
of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, Namibia University of Science
and Technology, Namibia.
Lilian
Pazvakawambwa,
Department
of Statistics and Population Studies, University of Namibia, Namibia.
Josua Mwanyekange,
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, Namibia
University of Science and Technology, Namibia.
Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/RATMCS-V3/article/view/11563
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