Climate change caused by
greenhouse gas emissions is occurring at an alarming pace in the Kapoeta region
of South Sudan. Currently, the Kapoeta region is faced with stiff competition
over access to grazing resources within and with neighbouring groups, such as
the Karamojong of Uganda and the Turkana of Kenya, culminating in increased
migration to water and pasturelands during dry seasons. Accordingly, the study
ascertained historical (1984-2016) and projected future (2021-2050) climate
trends in the Kapoeta region. Rainfall and temperature data were sourced from
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Prediction of
Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Climatology Resource, along with the Global
Weather Data for Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) data. Descriptive and
non-parametric statistics, including the Man-Kendall-tau and Sen's s-Slope
estimator, were used in XLSTAT 2016 to project historical (1984-2016) and
future (2021-2050) climate trends in the Kapoeta region of South Sudan. The
study was conducted in Greater Kapoeta, Eastern Equatoria State, South Sudan,
in 2016. The Norwegian Earth System Model One (NorESM1) was used to project
rainfall and temperature trends under Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for the period from 2021 to 2050. The results demonstrate
that annual rainfall amount declined (P=0.05) by 0.32 mm between 1984 and 2016,
and its monthly patterns changed from unimodal (1984-1994) to bimodal patterns
(1995-2016). Similarly, the maximum annual temperature significantly (P=0.05)
increased by 0.061 °C, and the monthly temperature increased significantly
(P=0.05) in March, April, May, July, and October from 1984 to 2016. The annual
rainfall projection shows a non-significant (P=0.06) rise of 2.912 mm under RCP8.5
and a decrease of 3.080 mm under RCP4.5 from August to December between 2021
and 2025. The peak average monthly rainfall amounts of 111 mm and 89 mm were
anticipated to occur in November under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 from 2021 to 2050. The
study projected a significant (P=0.05) increase in annual temperature by 0.016
°C and 0.028 °C, and average monthly temperature increase from January to May
under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 between 2021 and 2050. The peak maximum average monthly
temperature will reach 28.4 °C and 28.3 °C in March under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
between 2021 and 2050. Ultimately, the climate trends increased during
(1984-2016) with an anticipated future increase in climate trends (2021-2050)
that requires awareness of the pastoral and agropastoral communities on climate
anomalies in the Kapoeta region. Future research should focus on identifying
the adaptation and mitigation strategies to improve the overall resilience of
local communities in the region.
Author(s)
Details :-
Onono Francis Alex
Department of Animal Production, College of Natural Resources and
Environmental Studies, University of Juba, P.O. Box 82, Juba, South Sudan.
Sadhat Suleman
Walusimbi
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Makerere University,
P.O. 7062, Kampala, Uganda.
Emmanuel Zziwa
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Makerere University,
P.O. 7062, Kampala, Uganda and Climate Change Adaptation, Global Climate Change
Alliance, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Plot
88, Buganda Road Wandegeya, P.O. Box 521, Kampala, Uganda.
Please see the book
here :- https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/crgese/v5/6864
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