Predictive simulation of the geographical distribution of
the studied object has become an important tool in agroecology, since it uses
the previous information about the spatial distribution of species in the
ecosystem, limiting predictive models to the nearest ecological niche, thus
generating a forecast of possible areas of occurrence based on environmental
conditions that are similar to the identified populated area. The paper
considers the approaches and possibilities of using two types of simulation: the
species distribution model and the ecological niche model. The study aimed to
simulate favorable habitats and the potential spread of nongregarious locust
pests in North Kazakhstan based on satellite and ground data for preventive
measures. Four regions of North Kazakhstan were selected and covered as the
research area, namely, the Akmola, Pavlodar, Kostanay, and North Kazakhstan
regions and the analyses were carried out for the period 1999–2021. The MaxEnt
software was used to conduct the simulation. According to the species
distribution model, high indicators of the habitat are predicted in the
Pavlodar and Kostanay regions, on 69.9–100% of the studied territory. With the
simulation of ecological niches for non-gregarious locust pests, the following class
boundaries were determined for the transition from quantitative to qualitative
indicators from I (85–100%) to IV (0–50%), which indicates the zones of the
probability of pest attack from a higher indicator to a lower one. According to
the fundamental model, high indicators of the area of pest occurrence, that is,
zones I and II, are located in the central and northern parts of the Pavlodar
region. Here, the probability of non-gregarious locust occurrence of zones I
and II with a ratio of 1:1 is observed in a slightly arid, moderately warm
agroclimatic zone. In the southern part of the Kostanay region, the simulation
predicts the probability of occurrence in zones I and II with a ratio of 1:2 in
the moderately arid warm agroclimatic zone of this region. In the southern and
southeastern parts of the Akmola region, the model predicts the probability of
occurrence in zones I and II with a ratio of 1:3 in a slightly humid,
moderately warm agroclimatic zone of the region. These results of studies on
the simulation of favorable habitats and the potential spread of nongregarious
locust pests may allow prioritizing the areas for risk assessment, monitoring,
and early warning measures for the development and spread of pests. The
considered species distribution model can be used as a modern tool for
long-term forecasting of the spread of nongregarious locust pests since it
takes into account the peculiarities of the agricultural landscape. The
fundamental niche model can be used in a long-term population forecast since it
focuses more on the theoretical conditions of pest habitats. In the future,
similar studies can be conducted throughout Kazakhstan to obtain a complete
digital map of preferred locations for the spread of non-gregarious locust
pests to adequately plan plant protection products.
Author(s) Details:
Kurmet Baibussenov,
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical University, 62 Zhenis Ave.,
010011, Nur-Sultan, Republic of Kazakhstan.
Aigul Bekbayeva,
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical University, 62 Zhenis Ave., 010011,
Nur-Sultan, Republic of Kazakhstan.
Valery Azhbenov,
Zh. Zhyembaev Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Plant Protection and
Quarantine, 1 Kultobe Str., 050000, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan.
Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/IBS-V6/article/view/14981
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