The long-term supply, price dynamics and recycling of
zirconium and hafnium were assessed with the WORLD7 model. The total potential
resources have been estimated at least 640-800 million tons of zirconium and
16-22 million tons of hafnium, it is estimated that about 320 million tons of
zirconium is extractable. The WORLD7 model simulations show that the supply of
zirconium will be in soft scarcity, caused by expensive manufacture and limited
production capacity. Hafnium is in demand for superalloys in excess of the
present production capacity (90 tons per year in 2022), rather than the size of
the hafnium resource (20 million tons). The degree of recycling for zirconium
and hafnium is at present far too low. The production and supply of these
metals are predicted to peak around 2100, dependent on when the global
population peaks and demand peaks. The zirconium resource will be sufficient
for metal production for business-as-usual. For increased demand, scarcity may
arise from delays in the adaptation of production capacity for zirconium and
hafnium. The long-term sustainable extraction of zirconium is equivalent to a
total extraction of 210,000 ton/yr of zirconium element for the supply of oxide
and metal supply, far below the present extraction. Zirconium extraction would
be sustainable at a recycling rate of 86%. For hafnium, the sustainable
extraction is 2.5% of the total zirconium amount, or 5.2 tons/yr. Thus, hafnium
extraction is not long-term sustainable, unless the recycling rate is better
than 94%.
Author(s) Details:
Harald Ulrik Sverdrup,
System Dynamics and Serious Games, Inland Norway University of
Applied Sciences, Holsetgaten 31, NO-2315 Hamar, Norway.
Antoniy Elias Sverdrup
Genetics and Bioinformatics, Kazan Federal University, Kremlevskaya
Street 18, Kazan, RU-420 008, Russia.
Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/STRUFP-V1/article/view/14324
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