The present study highlights Trend Assessment along the
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Route in Baluchistan, Pakistan. CPEC
Corridor upon construction is expected to revolutionize the infrastructure,
economy, trade, finance, demography, environment, culture, and socio-economic
conditions, of Pakistan. Many of the western and central CPEC routes pass
through it. However, Baluchistan, due to its topography and rugged terrain, is
under constant risk of rainfall-driven flash floods. Flash floods are responsible
for colossal damage to the infrastructure, especially roads, bridges, trade,
and communication that ultimately badly affect humans, economy, and the
environment. The intensity and frequency of rainfall are increasing due to
climate change and flash floods put everything at high risk. In this view, the
assessment of changes in rainfall has got significant importance. More or less
no appreciable studies have been conducted on the precipitation trend analysis
and in Baluchistan. This research is focused on assessment of trend analysis in
precipitation of Baluchistan using 40 years (1977-2016) data from 13 stations
in Baluchistan. The analysis and results can be employed as input for
infrastructure planning of the area, which is going to be the financial hub of
the country. The data has been obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD). Precipitation data sample is checked for normal distribution,
abrupt changes, cycles, outliers and missing values. Normal distribution of
precipitation data set is done by conducting tests for normality like the
Shapiro-Wilk W test, Anderson–Darling, Lilliefors, and Jarque–Bera test.
Statistical tests, being the most direct methods of detecting changes in
extreme rainfall intensities, were adopted. Trend analysis is performed using
non-parametric tests, specifically the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho
(SR) tests, at 5% and 10% significance levels for monthly rainfall time series
data on an annual, monthly, and seasonal basis. The Theil and Sen’s (TSA) slope
approach is employed to quantify the slope trend. Additionally, the seasonal
and regional MK tests have also been applied to test the seasonal and regional
trends. The findings of MK and SR tests for the annual time series on
individual stations at the local level indicate that the number of
statistically significant negative trends exceeds the statistically significant
positive trends, suggesting a decreasing trend in rainfall. Similar trends are
observed when applying the MK test to monthly and seasonal time series,
corroborating the findings of the MK tests on annual rainfall time series at
individual stations. Furthermore, the outcomes of the regional analysis
consistently demonstrate significant negative trends, underscoring a prevalent
and widespread decrease in rainfall across all four regions.
Author(s) Details:
Erum Aamir,
IESE, NUST -H-12, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Nawal Fatima,
China Study
Center of National University of Sciences & Technology, Islamabad,
Pakistan.
Farah Naz,
School of Social Sciences and Humanities, NUST, Pakistan.
Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/RAEGES-V2/article/view/14302
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