Background: It has been established that primary health care
is a very effective and efficient means of addressing the primary causes and
dangers of poor health and well-being today, as well as addressing the new
issues that will endanger health and well-being in the future. Human resources
for health are one the building blocks of health systems, and the types and the
number of healthcare providers needed in each health system are closely linked
to how healthcare is organized in each country.
Aim: In our study, we used the System Dynamics approach to develop a model for
the population and General Practitioner workforce to include multiple inputs
and their relationships in the equations for each stock and flow.
Methods: We propose a model which takes into consideration the dynamic nature
of the system, the feedbacks that occur naturally in it and the possible policy
levers that can affect it. The model presents a systematic decision support
tool for the regulators, enabling testing of the long-term effects of various
policies on the health care gap. Three
scenarios were examined for forecasting primary health care personnel
resources. The base year for forecasting was 2018, and the modeling was carried
out until 2030.
Results: All of three scenarios indicate that with the current number of
graduated General Practitioners, the shortage of primary care physicians will
be exacerbated. In general, the shortage can reach more than 2,000 on a
population of 18.3 million (2018). The model is as realistic as all the given
input parameters are realistic. The problem of obtaining objective data on the
healthcare workforce is the greatest limitation in our workforce planning model
implementations.
Conclusion: The projected shortage of doctors in the primary health care system
requires special attention to human resource planning. Only one third of medical
graduates in Kazakhstan go to work in the primary health care system. The
government needs to develop measures to stimulate and support young medical
doctors to become general practitioners.
Author(s) Details:
B. Koichubekov,
Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical
University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan.
A.
Kharin,
Department
of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda,
Kazakhstan.
M. Sorokina,
Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical
University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan.
I. Korshukov,
Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical
University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan.
B. Omarkulov,
Department
of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan.
Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/RUDHR-V2/article/view/13508
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