Credit Risk, Monetary Policy Efficacy and Economic Performance in Tunisia: Evidence from ARDL and Markov Regime Switching Models | New Advances in Business, Management and Economics Vol. 9

 

The historical swings between periods of excess credit risk and phase shifts of tranquil periods with relatively easier banking credit conditions stimulating investment up to a certain limit raised the debate of the prevalence of credit risk switching regimes of the type of Markov regime switching models for credit risk exerting a lagged effect on economic performance and drained by monetary policy efficacy breakpoint shifts. Credit risk is at its maximum during recessions because of the increase in the likelihood of non-repayment of loans as investments perform bad in terms of profitability. Credit risk is assessed in terms of risk premiums that encompass the historical effect credit performance exerts on the banking assessment board of creditworthiness. This instance of modeling credit risk is proven to exhibit both patterns, although contrasting apparently, but with breakpoints in the unit root of monetary policy will herald obvious and fathomable key features of recent economic events driven by financial shocks in Tunisia. The main purpose of the research is to scrutinize the impact of banking sector related effects on economic performance depending on credit to the public sector monetary policy efficacy and economic growth, in order to elucidate the relationship between financial shocks and economic performance and to forecast future short run evolution of economic situation starting from an ARDL model exhibiting the main determinants of credit risk then passing to the diagnostic of a Markov model with jump effect applied to credit risk in a time series.

 

The first model shows a positive autocorrelation of credit risk signaling plausible self-sustaining exacerbation, a positive correlation with credit to the public sector as a proportion of GDP, a lagged negative correlation with GDP growth and a negative correlation with monetary policy efficacy. Granger causality shows that credit risk Granger causes GDP growth with a lag of three years. When monetary policy efficacy improves output gap widens. This means that actual output is farther from potential output. Businesses are having a boom in sales because of the expansionary phase of the business cycle or a bust because recession. Empirical data and regression results for the case of Tunisia show the prevalence of a Markov switching regime for credit risk, validating the jump effect hypothesis corresponding with a lag to the collapse of economic performance and heralding a sharp decline in economic performance caused by a phase shift in monetary policy efficacy. The transition probabilities found empirically validate the hypothesis of a persistent hypothesis of a first tranquil regime and a jump effect highly turbulent regime with a severe pike like the one in 2008 whose excessive negative consequences for economic performance and socioeconomic unrest have shown up with a lag of three years round end 2010 at the onslaught of regional MENA economic and sociopolitical meltdowns. The study concluded that the probability of transition from regime one with jump to regime 2 with steady low credit risk is very significant, whereas the probability of transition from regime 2 to regime 1 is expected to be non-significant, which means that regime switches of financial and socioeconomic distress are not ascertained but when they happen the return to the steady state is ascertained.

 

 

Author(s) Details

Mohamed Miras Marzouki a
FSEGT Campus El Manar Tunis, Tunisia.

 

Mariem Mahmoud
FSEGT Campus El Manar Tunis, Tunisia.

 

Please see the book here:- https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/nabme/v9/5978

Assessment of Economic Performance of Farmer Producer Companies in the Southern Districts of Tamil Nadu: Delineating Socio-economic Determinants and their Impact | Chapter 5 | Current Research Progress in Agricultural Sciences Vol. 6

GOI in 2000 established a committee under the chairmanship of Prof. Y. K. Alagh to promote the concept of producer companies (PC), aiming to improve support for primary producers. Farmer Producer Companies (FPCs) have become an important model for improving the socio-economic status and economic performance of small and marginal farmers in India, particularly in southern districts like Virudhunagar and Theni in Tamil Nadu. This study explores the role of FPCs in empowering farmers by enhancing market access, improving bargaining power, and reducing input costs. The research involved seven FPCs and a sample of 140 members, focusing on demographic factors, income levels, farm size, and governance structures. In Virudhunagar, four FPCs were selected and in Theni, three FPCs were selected. From each FPO, 20 FPC members were selected, resulting in a total sample of 140 FPC members for statistical analysis. The analysis revealed that FPCs predominantly consist of female members, with an average age of 44. Most members saw increased income after joining FPCs. Additionally, the SWOT analysis identified strengths like better market access and weaknesses such as limited processing facilities, posing operational challenges. The main goal of the FPC is to provide quality inputs, procurement, and trading of commodities to increase the income of member farmers. FPCs showed promise in transforming agriculture, notably through improvements in millet cultivation. For instance, FPC interventions led to a 20% increase in millet yields. Opportunities for FPCs include access to credit, government schemes, and improved market linkages. However, FPCs must navigate external threats such as price volatility, competition from local traders, and uniting diverse member interests. The findings offer valuable insights into potential strategies for strengthening FPCs in Tamil Nadu, such as enhancing cooperative marketing initiatives and investing in infrastructure for value addition to agricultural products.

 

Author (s) Details

 

A Malaisamy
AC & RI, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India.

 

Please see the book here:- https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/crpas/v6/3487

Studies on the Economic Performance of Argentinean North Central Railway, a State-Funded Line, from 1889 to 1920 | Chapter 8 | Current Topics on Mathematics and Computer Science Vol. 4

 At the turn of the twentieth century, Argentina's state-funded railways became one of the country's most important companies, partly due to its political significance as well as their economic relevance. Because of its size and complexity, the construction of a railway necessitates a considerable sum of money. Our study is focused on the North Central Railway's actions. To accomplish so, we'll employ a collection of data that indicate the company's economic performance, such as annual train kilometre totals. We'll use the terms "transported people," "transported cargo" (measured in tonnes), and "return" to refer to the amount of money invested. We'll use time series analysis techniques. These methodologies will help us to determine whether or not the Argentine government's transportation policy was executed with a genuine sense of economic benefit.

Author (S) Details

Professor María de las Mercedes Abril
Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina.

Professor María Beatriz Blanco
Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina.

View Book :-  https://stm.bookpi.org/CTMCS-V4/article/view/2283

Economic Performance of Micro Financing Institution: An Analysis | Chapter 7 | Insights into Economics and Management Vol. 2

 An effort was made to analyse the economic performance of the country's microfinance institutions over a period of time. The analysis showed that the opening of branches of micro-financing institutions in which the rate of change was approximately 8 per cent per annum is gradually changing. The growth rate per year for clients was found to be 23 per cent, which was more pronounced for clients in the small micro-financing community. Jobs in micro-financing organisations has shown positive improvements and has grown at an annual rate of 17 per cent. The microfinance institution's gross loan portfolio expanded at an annual rate of 75%, where the growth rate of small microfinance GLP was higher compared to medium and large classes of MFIs. The unpaid loan per client rose at 24% per annum, which was lower than the disbursement growth rate. It was also noted that in the service of micro-finance institutions, the southern area of the country was ahead. However, strong progress has also been made in setting up micro-financing institutions in the eastern region, the western region and the central region of the country. The north and north-east regions are lagging behind, which need special attention for the establishment of a microfinance institution. Overall, major improvements in the economic efficiency of the country's micro-financing institutions have occurred.

Author(s) Details

Dr. Jai Prakash
Department of Agricultural Economics, TMAC, BAU, Godda, Jharkhand, India.

Dr. R. P. Singh

Department of Agricultural Economics, RAC, BAU, Ranchi, Jharkhand, India.

View Book :- https://bp.bookpi.org/index.php/bpi/catalog/book/315