Showing posts with label granger causality. Show all posts
Showing posts with label granger causality. Show all posts

Monday, 10 March 2025

Mapping Oilseed Market Integration and Trade Causality: A Focus on Tamil Nadu and India's Interstate Dynamics | Chapter 11 | Current Research Progress in Agricultural Sciences Vol. 6

India has been grappling with a chronic shortage of edible oils due to insufficient domestic oilseed crop production, even though it briefly achieved self-sufficiency during the “Yellow Revolution” in the early 1990s. Oilseed crops like Sesame and Groundnut experience significant price fluctuations due to factors like seasonal production patterns, their perishable nature, and the risk involved in the production and marketing of output. The farmers are further complicated by a lack of information about market conditions, including the timing of arrivals and prices. Market integration, which helps stabilize prices and improve the efficiency of the marketing system. This study focuses on analysing the market integration of major oilseed crops such as Sesame, and Groundnut in India from January 2013 to January 2024. Johansen's cointegration test and Granger Causality test were applied to examine how prices in different markets influence one another. The stationarity of the prices was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The results confirmed that the prices are cointegrated, showing a strong interdependence between them. The analysis also revealed causal relationships between regions, such as bidirectional causality in the case of Sesame and Groundnut. The findings underscore the importance of further research to address production challenges, improve technical methods, and develop informed policies to manage the issues faced by oilseed crop-growing farmers. This will help overcome obstacles in production and ensure a more efficient marketing system. The study recommended that a meticulous study on constraints that obstruct the production process can help in understanding the problems and bringing the new technology. There is a need to address new challenges that transcend the traditional decision-making horizons of producers, consumers and policymakers.

 

Author (s) Details

 

A. Malaisamy
Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College & Research Institute, Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India.

 

Gowri Shankar
Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College & Research Institute, Madurai, Tamil Nadu, India.

 

Please see the book here:- https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/crpas/v6/3506

Monday, 13 January 2025

Energy - economic Growth Nexus Long Run and Causal Inference | Chapter 13 | Contemporary Research in Business, Management and Economics Vol. 8

 

There exists an economic relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. This chapter outlines the nature of linkage and direction of causal flow as the essential components of understanding the nexus between the two variables. Long-run analysis helps to understand how energy interacts at a level with economic growth.ARDL bound test for cointegration is preferred as it does have integration order limitations. Cointegration implies causality, causality does not imply cointegration. The Granger causality test is used to test for the nature and direction of causal links. The framework is applied to analyze the electricity consumption and economic growth relationship in a case study of Kenya.

 

Author(s)details:-

 

John K. Njenga
Department of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, P.O Box 13187 - 00200 Nairobi, Kenya.

 

Please See the book here :- https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/crbme/v8/721

Wednesday, 31 January 2024

Modelling Export-led Growth Hypothesis: An Empirical Evidence from Sudan | Chapter 2 | An Overview on Business, Management and Economics Research Vol. 8

The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) assumes that export growth is a key determinant of economic growth. It holds that the overall growth of countries can be facilitated by not only increasing the amounts of labor and capital within the economy but also expanding exports. According to advocates of the ELGH, exports can function as an engine of growth. This chapter analyzes the relationship between Sudan's income growth and exports from 1970 to 2020, implementing a system of equations using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The ARDL results revealed a long-run relationship between the variables considered in the estimated model. A negative lagged error-correction term coefficient was observed, which is highly significant in all cases supporting cointegration. The result reveals the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP, export, import, labor force, and trade policy, confirming the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis in the Sudanese context. Thus, the most essential conclusion is that the economy’s export expansion strategy is entirely dependent on imports of raw materials and capital inputs and the kind of goods being exported. The coefficient of import is of particular significance, offering strong support for the import compression hypothesis. The most important policy implication of the findings is the implementation of an appropriate and optimal approach that can boost exports and hence increase economic growth substantially. Policymakers should focus on export diversification strategies and invest more in Sudan’s ability to provide value-added services in order to meet international export demand. It is recommended that future research on this topic be based on high frequency data and larger sample sizes to increase the reliability of the results. Additional studies are recommended to investigate Sudan’s export diversification, volatility, and performance, as well as its import contraction hypothesis.

Author(s) Details:

Mohamed Sharif Bashir,
Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Ahmed Abdu Allah Ibrahim,
Al Neelain University, Khartoum, Sudan.

Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/AOBMER-V8/article/view/13104

Tuesday, 19 December 2023

An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Tanzania | Chapter 10 | An Overview on Business, Management and Economics Research Vol. 6

 This stage investigates the causal relationship betwixt foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and financial growth in Tanzania during 1990–2020. Because financial development and business were not included in extant studies, we received the two variables as intermediate variables by way of their intermediation role in the relationship 'tween inward FDI and economic growth. We acquired yearly data on Tanzania’s GDP, FD, work (TRD), and net FDI during 1990–2020 from World Bank Group and OECD Ethnic Accounts data files. Neoclassical progress theories claim  that FDI enhances financial growth by augmenting authorized capital stock and technology. This study employed the autoregressive delivered lag model and Granger origin tests to analyze the relationship. The results display that there exists a long-run friendship among the variables under consideration in Tanzania. Furthermore, the results show a long- and short-term positive and statistically meaningful unidirectional causal relationship middle from two points FDI inflow and Tanzania's economic progress. Hence, this chapter decided that Tanzania should emphasize FDI-led development policies while strengthening allure internal conditions, to a degree financial and human capital development, to improve economic growth and accomplish the desired economic goals. Moreover, future research should contain other pertinent variables in a scheme of equations where additional economic variables can also decide the nexus between FDI inflows and business-related growth.

Author(s) Details:

Benedict Huruma Peter Mwakabungu,
Department of Economics, Gujarat University, India.

Jignesh Kauangal,
Shree Narayana College of Commerce, Ahmedabad, India.

Please see the link here: https://stm.bookpi.org/AOBMER-V6/article/view/12796